Methodology

How We Calculate Risk

Every figure on this platform traces back to a public government statistical release. Here's what we measure, where the data comes from, and how to read the scores.

Risk Score Model

COMPOSITE RISK SCORE (0 – 100)

Every occupation receives a score from 0 (very safe) to 100 (critical risk). The score is generated by a proprietary multi-factor model that analyses several dimensions of labour market health simultaneously. The specific weighting methodology is part of our proprietary research process.

When multiple dimensions deteriorate at the same time — for example, hiring is falling and wages are stagnating and the occupation is highly automatable — the score rises nonlinearly. A single weak signal alone rarely pushes a job into the danger zone. It's the combination and interaction of signals that matters. The model also applies dynamic confidence weighting based on data completeness per occupation.

What We Measure	Data Source	What It Tells You
Hiring Demand	Government vacancy and job openings data	Are employers still hiring for this role — or pulling back?
Wage Trends	Government wage statistics	Are wages rising with inflation, stagnating, or falling?
Employment Levels	Government labour force surveys	Is the total workforce in this occupation growing or shrinking?
AI & Automation Exposure	O*NET task analysis data	How much of this job's daily work could be done by software or machines?
Structural Vulnerability	Cross-dimensional analysis	How do these factors compound when multiple signals move together?

Supplementary Signals

Risk Velocity

Is the score getting worse or better month-over-month? Positive velocity means the situation is deteriorating.

Stability

How predictable is this job’s trajectory? Jobs with erratic scores get flagged differently than those on a steady trend.

Confidence

How complete is our data for this occupation? A higher confidence score means more data inputs were available.

Risk Tier Classification

Tier	Score Range	Interpretation	Recommended Action
CRITICAL	75 – 100	Multiple simultaneous stress signals: hiring collapse, wage compression, AND high AI exposure	Immediate upskilling or adjacent career pivot warranted
HIGH	60 – 74	Strong structural headwinds — at least two major factors declining	Monitor closely; begin contingency planning
ELEVATED	45 – 59	Emerging pressure — one significant factor declining	Stay aware of industry trends; maintain skill currency
LOW	30 – 44	Minor signals; below-average risk relative to labour market	No immediate action required
STABLE	0 – 29	All indicators positive or flat; occupation is structurally sound	Career path well-supported by current labour market

Data Sources

BLSBureau of Labor Statistics

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics (OES)	Annual (May)	Employment, median wage, occupation codes	SOURCE
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)	Monthly	Job openings, hires, separations	SOURCE
Employment Projections 2023–2033	Biennial	Projected employment change by occupation	SOURCE

FREDFederal Reserve Economic Data

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Indeed Job Postings Index	Weekly	Job postings YoY change by sector	SOURCE
JOLTS Total Job Openings (JTSJOL)	Monthly	Total job openings in thousands	SOURCE

StatCanStatistics Canada

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Labour Force Characteristics by Occupation (14-10-0023-01)	Monthly	Employment by NOC occupation, Canada total	SOURCE
Job Vacancies by Occupation (14-10-0288-01)	Quarterly	Job vacancies, offered wages by NOC	SOURCE
Average Hourly Wages by Occupation (14-10-0063-01)	Monthly	Median hourly wages by occupation	SOURCE

ONSOffice for National Statistics

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Employment by Occupation (EMP04)	Quarterly	Employment by UK SOC major group	SOURCE
Average Weekly Earnings (EARN01)	Monthly	Average weekly pay, total and regular	SOURCE
Vacancies (VACS02)	Monthly	Job vacancies by industry sector	SOURCE

ABSAustralian Bureau of Statistics

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Labour Force, Australia (6202.0)	Monthly	Employment by ANZSCO major group	SOURCE
Job Vacancies, Australia (6354.0)	Quarterly	Total job vacancies by industry	SOURCE
Wage Price Index (6345.0)	Quarterly	WPI by industry, quarterly % change	SOURCE

EurostatEurostat

EU/EEA

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Employment by ISCO-08 (lfsa_egai2d)	Annual	Employment by 2-digit ISCO occupation, 34 countries	SOURCE
Labour Cost Index (lc_lci_r2_q)	Quarterly	Wage cost index by NACE sector, base 2020	SOURCE
Job Vacancy Statistics (jvs_q_nace2)	Quarterly	Job vacancies by NACE sector, 29 countries	SOURCE

e-StatStatistics Bureau of Japan (e-Stat)

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Labour Force Survey — Employment by Occupation	Monthly	Employment by JSCO major group	SOURCE
Monthly Labour Survey — Wages	Monthly	Average wages by industry sector	SOURCE

AdzunaAdzuna

MULTI

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
Job Vacancy Counts by Occupation	Real-time	Live job postings by ISCO-mapped category, 16 countries	SOURCE

O*NETO*NET Center

GLOBAL

Dataset	Cadence	Fields Used	Link
O*NET Database 29.0 — Work Activities	Quarterly	Task importance, cognitive vs manual ratio, social intensity	SOURCE
Occupation Crosswalk (SOC 2018 / 2010)	Static	SOC-to-NOC mapping for cross-country analysis	SOURCE

Cross-Country Occupation Mapping

Each country uses a different occupational classification system. To enable cross-country comparisons, IsJobSafe maps occupations using the following standards:

Country	Classification System	Version	Mapping Method
US	Standard Occupational Classification (SOC)	SOC 2018	Direct — all BLS data uses SOC codes
CA	National Occupational Classification (NOC)	NOC 2021	BLS-to-NOC crosswalk via O*NET / HRSDC mapping tables
GB	UK Standard Occupational Classification (UK SOC)	SOC 2020	SOC-to-UKSOC crosswalk; major group alignment
AU	Australian and NZ Standard Classification (ANZSCO)	ANZSCO 2013	ANZSCO major group to SOC major group alignment
EU (34)	International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08)	ISCO-08	ISCO 2-digit to SOC major group alignment via custom mapping
JP	Japan Standard Classification of Occupations (JSCO)	JSCO 2009	JSCO major group to ISCO/SOC alignment

Live Pipeline Log

Script	Source	Country	Rows	Status	Last Run
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	2,847	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	0	ERROR	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	2,847	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	2,847	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
fetch_eurostat.py	Eurostat	ALL	5,083	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	2,847	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
fetch_eurostat.py	Eurostat	ALL	5,083	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	2,847	SUCCESS	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	0	ERROR	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	0	ERROR	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	0	ERROR	2/25/2026
compute_risk.py	COMPUTED	ALL	2,847	SUCCESS	2/25/2026

Limitations & Disclaimers

IsJobSafe is a quantitative signal system, not a career counselling service. Scores reflect statistical trends in public data, not individual job security.

Occupational data release cycles vary by country and dataset. Some scores may lag real-world conditions by 1–3 months.

Cross-country comparisons use aligned major occupation groups. Detailed sub-occupation comparisons between countries are not directly comparable.

AI exposure scores are derived from O*NET task descriptors using a composite model. They reflect structural susceptibility to automation, not guaranteed displacement timelines.

All data is sourced from public government statistical agencies. IsJobSafe does not modify, estimate, or interpolate source figures.